Mike Sardina can measure the cost of U.S. foreign policy with his ears.
鈥淵eah, the sound of not having French being spoken,鈥� Sardina said from behind the bar at Parker Pie, in Glover, on a recent sunny afternoon.
The popular pizza restaurant in the heart of the Northeast Kingdom relies heavily on Qu茅b茅cois tourists who鈥檝e enjoyed slices, pints 鈥� and poutines made with cheese curds from a nearby farm.
The ambiance, Sardina said, has been sadly monolingual this summer.
鈥淚t鈥檚 just a different type of buzz in the air when those folks are here,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hat is palpably not here this summer.鈥�
Neither is the cash those Canadian patrons would pump into the local economy. Anne Eldridge, who鈥檚 owned Parker Pie since 2019, said revenues at the restaurant are down by about 20% compared to last year. She doesn鈥檛 have the hard data to prove it, but Eldridge figures the vast majority of that decline is due to fewer visitors crossing the northern border.
鈥淩estaurants have very thin margins as it is, so the effects of economic upheaval and international drama, for lack of a better word, it really affects the bottom line,鈥� said the Glover resident.
Data supports Eldridge鈥檚 intuition. The number of passenger vehicles crossing from Canada into Vermont over the past six months is down by 26%. The amount of spending transacted on Canadian credit cards dropped 44% over the same time period.
My basic observation is that this is as bad as we feared it would be.Newport City Mayor Rick Ufford-Chase
Newport Mayor Rick Ufford-Chase said the effect of Canadians鈥� sudden withdrawal from northern Vermont has been visible in the city鈥檚 downtown.
鈥淢y basic observation is that this is as bad as we feared it would be,鈥� Ufford-Chase said. 鈥淚 suspect that our numbers on Main Street are down by roughly 35% or 40%, because so much of our summer business in the past has come from our Canadian colleagues.鈥�
The Newport mayor said the words he most often uses to describe his city to outsiders are 鈥渞esilience and grit.鈥�
鈥淏ut it鈥檚 not an easy time to be a small businessperson anywhere. It鈥檚 especially hard here in the northern part of Vermont. And it鈥檚 remarkably hard in the wake of the president鈥檚 鈥� I don鈥檛 what else to call it 鈥� lunacy,鈥� he said.
President Donald Trump鈥檚 foreign policy agenda has had significant implications for Vermont鈥檚 relationship with its largest international trade partner. His recent decision to increase tariffs on most goods from Canada, from 25% to 35%, could threaten longstanding business relationships between Vermont businesses and Canadian manufacturers and suppliers.
But Kingdom residents say it鈥檚 Trump鈥檚 challenge to Canada鈥檚 sovereignty, and his suggestion that the country become the U.S.鈥檚 鈥�51st state鈥� that has to Vermont鈥檚 tourism economy.
鈥淲e would see dozens and dozens of bikes outside the store on the bike racks or just leaning up against the building, and normally hearing them speaking French, and that is just not happening,鈥� said Rick Woodward, who owns Green Mountain Natural Foods in Newport.
Woodward said revenues at his store are down 20% this summer.
鈥淚 would be comfortable in saying the vast majority of that is Canadian traffic,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e鈥檙e not seeing those faces that we鈥檝e come to know. And we鈥檙e not hearing much French.鈥�
Statewide, Canadians account for 5% of Vermont鈥檚 $4 billion annual tourism economy. According to state officials, that percentage jumps to as high as 30% or 35% for communities in northern Vermont, where some of Quebec鈥檚 Eastern Townships are less than a half hour drive away.
The local folks will complain that there鈥檚 too much traffic. But traffic means money.Jethro Hayman, president, Barton Area Chamber of Commerce
Jethro Hayman, the president of the Barton Area Chamber of Commerce, said the Kingdom sometimes has a complicated relationship with outsiders who come to enjoy its natural attributes such as Lake Willoughby or Mount Pisgah.
鈥淭he local folks will complain that there鈥檚 too much traffic. But traffic means money. And if you don鈥檛 want dire poverty, then this is sort of the bargain that we have to make,鈥� said Hayman, who lives in Glover. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 have enough manufacturing to keep things going. Obviously agriculture has transformed, so there鈥檚 not as much of that, so a huge part of the equation is tourism.鈥�
Locals are doing their best to stem the tide. Ufford-Chase is executive director of Newport City Downtown Development, which created a special bumper sticker that reads, 鈥淐anada 鈥� en vous respect.鈥�
鈥淛ust to make it clear we are not part of this lashing out that the president has engaged in,鈥� he said.
And at the state level, Tourism Commissioner Heather Pelham said her department is working with an advertising firm to develop focus-group tested messaging campaigns that will begin appearing in Canadian markets later this month.
But prospects of reversing the 2025 summer tourism slump are slim.
Ufford-Chase is under no illusion that coming up with new slogans, or flying Canadian flags, , will soften the anti-American sentiment that鈥檚 fueled the drop in traffic. He said he learned that firsthand when he met with the mayors of the Quebec townships of Magog and Stanstead earlier this summer.
鈥淭hey made it clear that until there鈥檚 some kind of clear sign of reconciliation or respect 鈥� there鈥檚 just no way that we鈥檙e going to push back against the anti-U.S. tide that exists right now,鈥� he said.
